53237 選民結構分類圖

將投票行為多變項模型，進一步作投影法分析

得 53237 選民結構分類圖如下：

正常投票群65% , 疏離群 35% (白+灰)

意識型態群不易改變：深綠(25%) 深藍(15%)

可能因候選人形象而改變者2群：

• 可變群(10%): 因接觸候選人本人形象而主動改變

• 搖擺群 (15%): 因媒體所傳播的候選人形象而被動改變

低疏離群(15%)可能因特殊-通常是危己事件而投票

正常投票率範圍為65%±15%，超過為危機選舉

A Projected Diagram of the Shape of the 3-D Model

Normal Election: 65% Normal Voters, 35% Laggards (White + Grey)

2 Strong Unchangeable Ideology Groups: Dark Green(25%) and Dark Blue(15%)

2 Relatively Flexible Groups Depend on Candidates' Image:

• Changing Group (10%): By Personal Image (Active)

• Swinging Group (15%): By Media Image (Passive)

Lighter Laggards(15%) May Vote By Something Unusual

Normal Election Range: 65%±15%, More Than 80% Is Crisis Election